91% of economists think a Yes vote would benefit the economy
Posted at 6:39 pm by Owen RooneyIndecon, an economic consultancy firm, has just released the results of a survey of 66 non-governmental Irish economists on their attitudes to the Lisbon Treaty. You can find the report here. The headline stat is that 91% of economists surveyed said that "Ireland’s overall economic interests would be best secured by a 'Yes' vote", which is excellent news for Yes campaigners as they try to convince the populace that voting Yes will help drag Ireland out of the economic doldrums. Other interesting stats are that 65% of economists think that a Yes vote would help bring in FDI (compared to only 3% who said a No vote would do the same) and 75% think that a Yes vote would "significantly enhance Ireland's reputation" (with just 1.5% claiming it would damage our reputation).
September 14th, 2009 - 06:43
This is a survey of 66 people, including an undisclosed number of economists employed by the surveyor itself !
At the time of the famous 46 letter (on NAMA), it was estimated that there were 200-plus economists in academia. I know at least one who was not approached for this survey.
Which leaves the credibility of this thing …
September 14th, 2009 - 08:46
I wonder how many of the Indecon staff members who participated in this survey were also among those whose wrote the report.
I also wonder if it is fair to regard Indecon as “independent” for this purpose.
September 14th, 2009 - 09:43
the 200 in academia were not contacted about the NAMA petition either! Brian Lucey said on radio he contacted 108 in total.
September 14th, 2009 - 09:50
And another thing:
It would appear that Indecon selected the 66 to “survey”, using rather loaded questions in some instances. (Despite this, the answers to some questions subverted the overall theme).
I imagine that many assumed, as I did, that a professional outfit like Indecon, before coming out with a document like this, would have circulated, say, all academic economists working in the Republic of Ireland with a scientifically designed questionnaire.
September 14th, 2009 - 18:27
I have posted a brief article on the above here:
http://www.irish-lawyer.com/journal/2009/9/14/lisbon-treaty-will-have-no-effect-on-exports-say-economists.html
September 18th, 2009 - 06:49
As a result of information in a private communication from Alan Gray, Managing Partner of Indecon, and partially confirmed elsewhere, I withdraw the sobriquet “hand-picked” (used on my website). However, I still have some unexpressed reservations about the methodology employed, on which I would be prepared to expand. Unfortunately, to do so properly would require me to break a confidence.