Comments on: 91% of economists think a Yes vote would benefit the economy

By: Fergus O'Rourke

Fergus O'Rourke — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 05:49:09 +0000

As a result of information in a private communication from Alan Gray, Managing Partner of Indecon, and partially confirmed elsewhere, I withdraw the sobriquet “hand-picked” (used on my website). However, I still have some unexpressed reservations about the methodology employed, on which I would be prepared to expand. Unfortunately, to do so properly would require me to break a confidence.

By: Fergus O'Rourke

Fergus O'Rourke — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 17:27:38 +0000

I have posted a brief article on the above here:

http://www.irish-lawyer.com/journal/2009/9/14/lisbon-treaty-will-have-no-effect-on-exports-say-economists.html

By: Fergus O'Rourke

Fergus O'Rourke — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 08:50:32 +0000

And another thing:

It would appear that Indecon selected the 66 to “survey”, using rather loaded questions in some instances. (Despite this, the answers to some questions subverted the overall theme).

I imagine that many assumed, as I did, that a professional outfit like Indecon, before coming out with a document like this, would have circulated, say, all academic economists working in the Republic of Ireland with a scientifically designed questionnaire.

By: jonny swan

jonny swan — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 08:43:37 +0000

the 200 in academia were not contacted about the NAMA petition either! Brian Lucey said on radio he contacted 108 in total.

By: Fergus O'Rourke

Fergus O'Rourke — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 07:46:39 +0000

I wonder how many of the Indecon staff members who participated in this survey were also among those whose wrote the report.

I also wonder if it is fair to regard Indecon as “independent” for this purpose.

By: Fergus O'Rourke

Fergus O'Rourke — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 05:43:13 +0000

This is a survey of 66 people, including an undisclosed number of economists employed by the surveyor itself !

At the time of the famous 46 letter (on NAMA), it was estimated that there were 200-plus economists in academia. I know at least one who was not approached for this survey.

Which leaves the credibility of this thing …